I put together this map showing recent county-level population trends across the country while we wait for county-level 2021 population estimates. I wanted to look at not just population change, but the trend within that change to explore questions like:

Is a county experiencing accelerating growth?

Is a county growing, but more slowly than it has been?

Is a county contracting more rapidly over time, or less so?

A few thoughts on the findings:

• From 2017-2020 there were effectively equal numbers of counties with rising populations as there are falling populations. There are about 80 more ‘fallers’ than ‘risers’ overall out of more than 3,000 counties.

• Most states had a mix of risers and fallers, but states like Washington, Oregon, Utah, and Arizona have almost all risers.

• There are 221 counties that were growing at an accelerated rate through 2020, the largest of which is Maricopa AZ (i.e. Phoenix). But the vast majority of these counties are small counties ringing major metro areas.

• There are 239 counties that were in accelerated declines through 2020, including LA and Orange Counties in California, Kings County NY (i.e. Brooklyn), and Wayne MI (Detroit).  And while these declines weren’t massive, they are likely to be more so in 2021.

• People continue to flee the Midwest and Rust Belt, but there are some interesting exceptions like portions of Indiana, Minnesota, and around northwest Arkansas

• Texas and South Carolina are great examples of states where population is booming in a few metro areas while the rest of the state struggles to gain population.