Work From Home Changes, and What They Mean

Work from home (WFH) rates soared in 2021 per the latest Census release. This was expected. But I’m seeing some surprising findings from the state and metro-level data that are worth sharing.

Some findings:

·        The average increase in WFH rate was 12 percentage points, from 6% to 18% - so a tripling of WFH rates. 27 states (DC included) had WFH rates increase 10 percentage points. There was no regional differentiation here; states across the country saw this major WFH shift.

·        The West Coast and Northeast corridor had the highest WFH rates in 2021, led by D.C. at an enormous 48%. (At some point federal employees will be asked to return to work, and then that number should drop precipitously.) Many of these states had average or even below-average WFH rates in 2019.

·        Some of the states that have been absorbing residents leaving big coastal states –Montana, Idaho, Nevada, South Carolina, and Tennessee - have surprisingly low WFH rates, and had surprisingly small WFH changes from 2019. I would’ve expected to see much higher WFH ratesd in these states, given the narrative around WFH employees moving to more affordable and less dense locations. Perhaps the prevailing notion that many people are keeping their big city salaries but paying small town home prices is exaggerated?

·        WFH rates were noticeably higher in metropolitan areas than they were in rural areas. This was a major change. In 2021, the metro area WFH rate was 20%. By my calculations*, WFH rate in non-metro areas was only 8%. Compare that to 2019 where metro area WFH rate was 6% and non-metro WFH was 5%.

There are further implications for the housing market that we can infer from this data, and that will be covered in a future post.

* Calculated by subtracting total metro area employees and WFH employees from the reported nationwide figures for employees and WFH employees